Two forecast indicators were published in the last weeks that give a dark, if predictable insight into our warming climate. The first comes from the national weather service’s climate prediction center, in their seasonal outlook maps for the coming three months. These maps, which are made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), forecast a winter that will be drier and warmer than usual for New Mexico, where La Niña conditions will return for the second year in a row.
The seasonal maps have given New Mexico a 50-60% chance of having above normal temperatures this winter and a likewise a 33-50% chance of having drier than usual conditions.
La Niña, which means little girl in Spanish, refers to a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that brings cooler, wetter weather to the Pacific Northwest and warmer, drier weather to the southern states. It is not unusual for La Niña events to be repeated annually, or to last for more than a year.
The effects of climate change on these weather patterns are still largely unknown, although much research has been done on the link between more extreme weather events and our warming planet.